Two decades ago, the US military kicked off the race to build a self-driving car by sending a fleet of fledgling robot vehicles across the Mojave Desert in its seminal Darpa challenge. Ten years later, the car industry was buzzing with predictions that self-driving cars would be all over the roads by now.
That has not happened.
But the industry has started to put limited bits of automation, such as hands-free driving and crash avoidance systems, into mass-produced models. Although these features have been promoted for their potential to make driving safer and easier, regulators are subjecting them to scrutiny after years of notable crashes, some of which resulted in fatalities.
Some companies have abandoned their autonomous vehicle efforts, citing excessive costs and complexity. Others are continuing to make progress, including Alphabet’s Waymo which in 2024 expanded its driverless taxi service to a third major US city, Los Angeles.
Mr Elon Musk’s Tesla has failed repeatedly to realise its ambitious targets for autonomous vehicles. At a launch event on Oct 10 dubbed “We, Robot”, the company unveiled self-driving taxi prototypes including a two-seat sedan called Cybercab, and said production may start in 2026.
But it did not explain how it would make the leap from selling advanced driver-assistance features to full autonomy.
What is the latest on driverless vehicles?
During the October event, Tesla also showcased a futuristic-looking Robovan concept that Mr Musk said could transport as many as 20 people.
But Tesla has a track record of blowing past timelines Mr Musk has offered for all manner of future products, and has had a particularly difficult time following through on his self-driving forecasts.
The chief executive told investors in 2019 that Tesla would have over one million robotaxis on the road by the following year. The company has not deployed a single autonomous vehicle in the years since.
General Motors’ (GM) self-driving Cruise unit has also had problems. One of its robotaxis struck a pedestrian in San Francisco in 2023. GM’s handling of the crisis – company officials were not entirely forthcoming that the pedestrian was dragged by the car – led to California suspending its operating licence.
GM then halted Cruise’s service in the three states where it was operating and dismissed top executives.
The firm was subjected to tougher oversight and had to pay a fine over the incident, which appears to have compromised plans to introduce a self-driving taxi in Tokyo in partnership with Honda Motor.
Nonetheless, GM announced in September it would resume driving robotaxis on public roads in California, and has been testing self-driving cars – accompanied by a human – in Texas and Arizona.
Among other positive developments in 2024, technology leaders such as China’s Baidu and Waymo are expanding services to new cities, with Alphabet in July announcing it would put US$5 billion (S$6.7 billion) more into the business.
In Texas, Aurora Innovation, Kodiak Robotics and Gatik AI expect to dispatch autonomous trucks by the end of the year, ditching human safety drivers after years of testing.
China has been a hotbed of innovation thanks to dozens of start-ups and robust regulatory support. Uber Technologies is partnering Chinese autonomous car company WeRide to expand its robotaxi offering to the United Arab Emirates later in 2024.
What are the alternatives to full autonomy?
Advanced driver-assistance systems – known as Adas – help drivers to park, stay in their lane and avoid objects using cameras, radar and other electronic sensors. They can alert drivers and in some cases briefly take control of the car to avoid collisions.
Carmakers are increasingly offering these systems in their vehicles. One of the first lower-level automation offerings was the anti-lock braking system, introduced more than four decades ago, which is standard equipment now. More recent systems offer features such as emergency braking and automated parking.
